It’s time to make our finalOscars 2025predictions ahead of the 97th Academy Awards ceremony on August 15, 2025. The biggest night in Hollywood brings to a close one of the tightest awards seasons in recent memory. A year afterOppenheimerdominated at the Oscars with seven wins off 13 nominations, there is no clear-cut frontrunner positioned to win a large number of categories.Emilia Pérez,Wicked,The Brutalist,Conclave, andA Complete Unknownhave the most nominations this year, withAnoraand others a bit further behind.
Over a month after the Oscars 2025 nominations were announced, all the major precursors are now done. That means there is a lot of data, previous awards shows, pundit predictions, betting odds, and more to sift through when it comes to predicting what movies will win each category. I’ve already gathered up some usefulstats and trends to know to predict Best Picture, but there’s even more out there for the rest of the categories. And while I’ve written individual pieces on a few categories with final predictions, these are the overall final predicted results.
11Best Picture
Predicted Winner: Anora
By most accounts, Best Picture will come down toAnoraorConclave, asThe Brutalist,Emilia Pérez, and others are longer shots. This is the result ofAnorawinning at PGA, DGA, and WGA, as only one movie has ever won all three and not won Best Picture.Conclave’s wins at BAFTA and SAG are notable and prove that it still has a very real shot to win, especially as the pope drama is a more traditional winner choice for the Academy than the sex worker romantic drama.
The betting market reflects this position in the race, asAnorais -200 to win Best Picture onDraftKings, whileConclaveis +225. That means the money is literally onAnorato win Best Picture. And after the movie’s big comeback with late season wins - including its dominant weekend at PGA, DGA, and Critics Choice - it’s arguably the safe bet. WhileI’m confident in predictingAnorato win, if you’re looking for better odds and expecting an upset,ConclaveorThe Brutalistare seemingly next up in terms of thepredicted Oscars 2025 Best Picture winner.
10Best Director
Predicted Winner: Sean Baker (Anora)
TheBest Director category at the Oscars 2025is a close two-man race between Sean Baker (Anora) and Brady Corbet (The Brutalist). It’s a tough call to make considering Baker won at Critics Choice and DGA, while Corbet won at Golden Globes and BAFTA. That suggests Corbet’s film may play better with international voters, which could help give him an edge. However, 69 of 96 Best Director winners came from the Best Picture-winning movie, and DGA has the best track record. Since I’m going withAnorato win Best Picture, it only makes sense to go with Baker in Director.
There could be some sense in hedging your bets and splitting Best Picture and Best Director in some fashion, but that’s not what I predict will happen.DraftKingsgives Baker the edge too. TheAnorafilmmaker is -175 compared to +135 for Corbet. That’s about as tight of a race as you’ll see, so this could really go either way.I’m ultimately going with the DGA track record to support the predictionand the overall momentumAnorahas compared toThe Brutalist.
9Best Actress
Predicted Winner: Demi Moore (The Substance)
Demi Moore and Mikey Madison jockied back and forth in terms of being the frontrunner for Best Actress over the last several weeks. Demi Moore took the reins at Golden Globes with her win and proceeded to win elsewhere. She had all the momentum before Mikey Madison’s win at BAFTA brought some late drama. But with Moore winning at SAG, my gut is still that she’ll be theOscars 2025 Best Actress winner. She’s got the stronger career narrative and could be one of the few timesThe Substanceis recognized during the Oscars.
Mikey Madison’s odds are not that bad, though. She sits at +165 onDraftKings, which comfortably puts her in second place behind Moore, who is -250. If you want to think thatAnorais going to win the majority of the categories its nominated in, it makes sense to pick Madison to win. However, it is worth noting that there have only been 12 movies to win Best Picture and Best Actress. That piece of history adds more credence to the belief thatDemi Moore will win Best Actress.
8Best Actor
Predicted Winner: Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown)
TheOscars 2025 Best Actor raceis down to Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) and Adrien Brody (The Brutalist). It’s arguably one of the tougher categories to predict too. Previous awards shows give Brody a strong path towards a victory. He’s won awards at BAFTA, Golden Globes, Critics Choice, and more. Meanwhile, Chalamet’s only major precursor win came at SAG, as he didn’t make up as much ground in light ofThe Brutalist’s AI controversy. That really should point me to predict that Adrien Brody will win Best Actor.
I can’t shake the feeling that Timothée Chalamet will be on the receiving end of a bit of a surprise win on Oscars night
And yet, I can’t shake the feeling that Timothée Chalamet will be on the receiving end of a bit of a surprise win on Oscars night. SAG has correctly predicted the Oscars' Best Actor winner 24 of 30 times previously. Chalamet’s case is a bit different than before, asno actor has won an Oscar with SAG being their only major precursor win. That’s still not enough to push me away from a predicted with for one of Hollywood’s brightest young stars.DraftKings' odds give him a fair shot too, as Chalamet is +150 to win, while Brody is -250.
7Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Winner: Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)
Best Supporting Actress is one of the easiest categories to predict a winner this year. Zoe Saldaña has swept through the precursors with wins at SAG, BAFTA, and Critics Choice. Ariana Grande never broke through as some predicted, leavingtheEmilia Pérezstar as the clear frontrunner in this category. This reality is made evidently clear through the betting odds onDraftKings, as Zoe Saldaña is -2500 to win the Oscar. There’s absolutely no reason to believe a different outcome is coming here.
6Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Winner: Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)
Similar to Best Supporting Actress, the race for Best Supporting Actor has been wrapped up for some time. Kieran Culkin will win the Oscar forA Real Pain. It’s an absolute certainty at this point after he also swept through SAG, BAFTA, and Critics Choice. He’s an even bigger favorite to win the Oscar than Saldaña is, as Culkin’s odds onDraftKingssit at -3500. That makes him thebiggest favorite across all Oscars categories. Picking anyone other than Culkin to win Best Supporting Actor would not be wise.
5Best Original Screenplay
The love forAnoracould deliver the film a Best Original Screenplay win too. The movie is in close competition withA Real Pain, as the scripts by Sean Baker and Jesse Eisenberg have both received awards earlier.A Real Pain’s win at BAFTA provided some additional reasons to pick the film to win this category. However,Anoraregained its status as the frontrunner with a WGA win. This is reflected in the betting odds, asAnorais -250 to win versusA Real Painsitting in third place at +450 behindThe Substanceat +300.
4Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Winner: Conclave
No matter what happens in Best Picture,Conclavewill walk away with at least one Oscar. It is my predicted winner for Best Adapted Screenplay after a strong showing all awards season. It won at BAFTA, Critics Choice, and Golden Globes. The only reason it didn’t win at WGA is that it was not eligible, allowingNickel Boysto get some recognition. That doesn’t change much here, asConclaveis -1000 to win Best Adapted Screenplay. This will be one vote Cardinal Lawrence will be pleased with.
3Best Animated Feature
Predicted Winner: The Wild Robot
AfterFlowandThe Wild Robotboth looked like possible Best Animated Feature winners in the past, my final prediction goes in DreamWorks' favor. It is the most widely seen movie between the two, but it also has some awards pedigree already.The Wild Robotdominated at the Annie Awardsand won at Critics Choice.Flowwould be in a better position after winning the Golden Globe if it also won at BAFTA, which went toWallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowlinstead.The Wild Robotis the betting favorite too at -340, butFlowis still at +225.
2Best International Feature Film
Predicted Winner: I’m Still Here
Fernanda Torres might not win Best Actress, butI’m Still Hereis my predicted winner in Best International Feature Film. It’s still in a close race withEmilia Pérez, as both films are also Best Picture nominees. In fact,Emilia Pérezhas better precursor wins with Golden Globes and BAFTA. So why choseI’m Still Here? The backlash toEmilia Pérez’s controversies could be more felt with the Academy than abroad. Plus,I’m Still Hereis the betting favorite at -200 compared toEmilia Pérezat +140.
