The 2025 Oscars ceremony is just around the corner, and this year’s race couldn’t look more different from last year’s. WhereOppenheimerwas the clear frontrunner throughout the entirety of the 2024 season, this year’s Best Picture category is totally open and much harder to predict. However, there are several important similarities between Christopher Nolan’sOppenheimerand Brady Corbet’s historical epicThe Brutalistthat seems to make it the safest pick for anybody’s2025 Oscar predictions.
Corbet’s film first screened at the Venice International Film Festival in 2024 to hugely positive reviews from critics, and since its wide release in theaters, the film has only become even more popular. Director Brady Corbet and the film’s entire cast have picked up an impressive number of critics’ awards, and despite heavy competition from films likeEmilia Perez,Conclave, andA Complete Unknown, the film seems to be performing well. It’s arguably thestrongest of the Best Picture nominees, and it would be more than deserving of the award - but at the Oscars, that’s not always enough.
The Brutalist Is Another American Epic With Huge Critical Acclaim
The Two Films Have Many Thematic Connections
Much likeOppenheimer, Corbet’s film uses the innovative work of one historical figure (in this case, Hungarian architect Laszlo Toth) to explore much larger themes about political tension and the American dream. They’re both epic stories that perfectly walk the line between large-scale historical narratives and much smaller, intimate stories about sacrifice and self-acceptance - and the role that ambition plays in the family sphere.The BrutalistandOppenheimerare thematically very similar, which could be contributing to the former’s heavy Oscar chances.
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Likewise, bothThe BrutalistandOppenheimerhave received immense critical acclaim from the moment they were released. WhileOppenheimerhad the added benefit of being directed by Christopher Nolan, a filmmaker that audiences already know and love, Brady Corbet is a relatively unknown name for general viewers. This posed an extra challenge forThe Brutalist, which it managed to easily overcome and cement itself as last year’s biggest critical hit.The Brutalistis also one of 2024’s longest films, but somehow audiences haven’t been deterred by this.
The Brutalist’s Precursors Are Very Similar To Oppenheimer’s
The Film Found Success At The Golden Globes
When considering which film has the best chance of going on to win Best Picture at the Academy Awards, one of the most important factors to take into consideration are the precursors that it receives in the months leading up to the ceremony. The most important of these awards include the Golden Globes, the BAFTAs, and the Critics Choice Awards - all of which nominatedThe Brutalistthis year. Importantly,Oppenheimerwas also nominated at all of these ceremonies.
It’s following closely in the footsteps of last year’s winner, and the Critics’ Choice Awards are the next obstacle that it must overcome to fully cement itself as the frontrunner.
The Brutalistalso won Best Drama at the Golden Globes (just likeOppenheimer), and is on track to repeat this success at the BAFTAs and Critics Choice Awards. If the film manages to pull this off, it will be on exactly the same track asOppenheimerin the weeks leading up to the Oscars. This clearly makesThe Brutalistlook like the next Best Picture winner. It’s following closely in the footsteps of last year’s winner, and the Critics’ Choice Awards are the next obstacle that it must overcome to fully cement itself as the frontrunner.
Adrien Brody’s Best Actor Win Could Mirror Cillian Murphy’s
Brody’s Second Academy Award Could Push His Film To Victory
Another important fact about the Oscars is that a film rarely manages to win Best Picture without finding success in some other major categories.Oppenheimerrepeated this pattern, winning Best Director and Best Actor before taking home the final award at the end of the night. While Brady Corbet’s chances in Best Director aren’t as solid as Nolan’s were in 2024, there’s a strongcase to be made for Adrien Brody taking home a second Oscarin the Best Actor category. This would further strengthen the comparisons betweenOppenheimerandThe Brutalist, making it the clear frontrunner.
The Brutalist’s AI Controversy Explained & Whether It Will Hurt Adrien Brody’s Oscar Chances
There’s a strong chance that the recent backlash regarding the use of artificial intelligence in The Brutalist could hurt the movie’s Oscar chances.
Importantly,Brody’s lead performance is very similar to Cillian Murphy’sOscar-winning performance inOppenheimer. They’re both playing real people whose lives were plagued with moral struggles and political injustices, representing a period of American history much larger than themselves. These fine-tuned, emotional performances are exactly what the Academy tends to vote for. Look no further than Brendan Fraser inThe Whaleor Anthony Hopkins inThe Father; the Oscars love tear-jerker performances that display a wide range of emotions. That’s exactly what Brody is doing inThe Brutalist, and it gives him a slight edge over his competitor, Timothée Chalamet.
The Brutalist Isn’t A Clear Frontrunner Like Oppenheimer Was
There’s Much Stronger Competition This Year
However, the most important difference betweenThe BrutalistandOppenheimeris that Corbet’s film can’t safely be labeled as a “frontrunner” in the same way that Nolan’s was. Sadly, much of this comes down to reasons outside ofThe Brutalist’s control -this year’s Best Picture category is simply much less competitive than last year’s, and Academy voters are finding it much harder to single out a clear favorite among the nominees. It’s an extremely strong year, andThe Brutalistis just one great movie of several.
2024 was slightly different, and it was essentially decided thatOppenheimerwas the critics’ favorite long before the Oscars actually happened. Nolan’s movie was taking home all the critics’ awards, sweeping the industry ceremonies, and picking up countless acting awards in the process.The Brutalistdoesn’t have this same level of universal acclaim, and it doesn’t help that Brody isn’t sweeping the acting awards in the same way that Cillian Murphy was.
Will The Brutalist Match Oppenheimer’s Oscars Performance Or Fall Short?
It’s Unlikely That Brady Corbet’s Film Will Be Quite As Successful
Ultimately, it’s still too early to predict whether or notThe Brutalistwill matchOppenheimer’s record-breaking performance at the Academy Awards last year. There are clear similarities between the projects, but these may not be enough to carry Corbet’s film to such a dominating victory. It’s still the safestprediction for 2025’s Best Picture, but if the film fails to acquire at least Best Director or Best Actor, it’s easy to imagine that passion forThe Brutalistmay lessen and comparisons toPoor ThingsorKillers of the Flower Moonwill prove more accurate.
The Brutalist
Cast
Architect László Toth and his wife Erzsébet flee Europe in 1947, seeking a fresh start in America. Their fate shifts after meeting a wealthy, enigmatic client.
